Moving towards Democracy in Iraq
Moving Towards Democracy in Iraq.
From the gates of the St. Hormizo Monastery it is possible to look out over an Iraqi landscape that appears as timeless as it is endless. But the steep, snaking roads and seclusion of the monastery reflect times when its inhabitants felt safer keeping a guarded low profile.
The instability that followed the invasion of Iraq in 2003 spelt a return to such turbulent times, not only for Christians but also for other minorities – from Turkmen to Yezidis. But today, stability and confidence appear to be returning, and in December Iraqis will go to the polls to select their national representatives from what are likely to be long lists of eager candidates.
The elections will take place against the backdrop of coalition troop withdrawals, new uncertainties, and an increasingly expectant Iraqi public. A lot is riding on the outcome and management of the election.
Iraq’s minorities are divided between placing their faith in a Baghdad-centred state with a degree of decentralisation or supporting a stronger, more assertive Kurdistan region in which they would be a more visible and proportionally grater group. Both visions have their merits and limits, and both are part of a wider geopolitical game being played out over the future shape of Iraq.
The result will have a major impact on Iraq’s minorities, and this is reflected in many of the existing political divisions. Although debates are now less about narrow sectarian concerns and more about the delivery of local services and the probity of elected officials. In part, this is a response to the fact that Iraqis form a rapidly maturing electorate that has been targeted by pervasive public information programmes, but is keen to exercise its new democratic rights. Consequently, political parties are developing their platform, tailoring campaigns to their natural constituencies, and even recruiting celebrities from diaspora communities as far away as the United States.
Electiral officials are rising to new and existing challenges. In January, these ranged from continued attempts at vote manipulation to unwieldy, A3 ballot papers, large numbers of voters in small voting centres, and a bewildering number of competing candidate and parties. But if Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) can retain its dedicated personnel, it will be able to build an important foundations for future elections.
While the progress made to date is tangible for millions of Iraqis, the same feats that led the builders of St. Hormizo to nestle their sanctuary in the hills is leading thousands of Assyrians, Turkmen and Yazidis to retreat to Nineveh Province. Iraq’s recent history has left it with one of the world’s largest populations of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). The victims of targeted intimidations, they leave behind their homes and livelihoods in cities such as Mosul to seek refuge in the relative security of the north. Such intimidation seems to be lessening as security improves, but many remain reluctant to return to their homes and the number of returnees from other counties is negligible.
The true impact of the internal displacement suffered since 2003 will only become known later this year, when the government embarks on what will be a landmark census. However, it is clear that the displacement of the country’s ethnic minorities will continue to have an effect on the elections for years to come, and affect the claims to contested areas such as Kirkuk and Khanaqin.
IDPs can face several hurdles when they try to vote. For those displaced from their homes, often without complete documentation, proving their identity can be a challenge. The process is made more difficult by those who see in IDPs a vehicle for electoral fraud. This can involve the buying of votes, threats to employment, or even the provision of transport to polling centres.
Accounts of such intimidation were heard in the run-up to the provincial elections o 31st January and, even if unsubstantiated, they reflect the nervousness of minority voters and their belief that the electoral process remains open to manipulation by political parties and voters in the Nineveh Plain and elsewhere.
These fears are not groundless. During the provincial elections in became clear that communication between polling centres was poor in some cases. In one area, this meant that two polling stations had to share a single ballot paper stamp – a shortcoming that told of deficiencies within the senior administration.
At the local level there were also concerns. Accredited individuals working as polling station observers for political parties rarely challenged electoral officials when voters were turned away from polling stations, and voter complaint forms – intended to be visibly available – were frequently found in desk drawers.
Taken together, these weaknesses impact on IDPs and risk discrediting the electoral process. It is important that the success of January’s elections does not lead to complacency that could cloud the forthcoming parliamentary elections. Id anything, December’s voting will be even more important because, if successful, it will represent a solid step towards consolidating democracy in Iraq.
The most serious failing in the Nineveh Plain lies not with Iraqi electoral staff or political parties desperate to won votes, but with the international community. There were no international electoral observation missions in the province, except the small observation team of the Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organisation and Assyrian Council in Europe.(UNPO-ACE), which I was a part of. Independent, international election observation missions must continue to support Iraq’s democratisation and show that the international community is not complacent about the progress made to date. Iraq’s democracy is young and fragile, but its people are its strongest advocates. To fail them would be to fail us all.