Not much progress seems to be made in the new round of negotiations between the Dalai Lama’s envoys and China. Indeed, the very existence of these negotiations is being denied by China.

Below are extracts from an article written by Benjamin Kang Lim and published by Reuters:

In an overture to the Dalai Lama in 1979, China's then paramount leader Deng Xiaoping invited envoys of Tibet's exiled […] [leader] to visit for closed-door talks on "anything but independence".

The Dalai Lama's envoys made about 15 trips up to 1994 when talks were suspended due to lack of progress. This week, envoys are visiting China again in hopes of holding a sixth round of talks since dialogue resumed in 2002, but once again failure to make progress threatens to derail rapprochement.

"President Hu (Jintao) should take seriously Deng's basic premise because if all conditions apart from independence cannot be agreed upon, we (exiled) Tibetans might just strive for independence," Khedroob Thondup, a member of Tibet's parliament-in-exile, said from his home in India.

The Dalai Lama and about 100,000 Tibetans have lived in exile in the Indian hill station of Dharamsala since fleeing their predominantly Buddhist homeland in 1959 after a failed uprising against Communist rule.

The Dalai Lama says he wants greater autonomy, not independence, for his homeland. But China still considers him a separatist, underscoring the gulf between the sides.

On Tuesday, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman played down the envoys' visit, saying they were not official representatives of the Dalai Lama. But the spokesman urged the envoys to help the Dalai Lama understand China's policies and make correct choices.

China has defended its rule in Tibet, saying life has improved for most Tibetans since the Dalai Lama fled. China has poured billions of yuan into the Himalayan region, and last year, opened a railway linking it to the rest of China.

INFLUENCE

Analysts say China appears to be avoiding substantive talks and seeking to impress the visitors with Shanghai's glitter and glamour, apparently to delay the Dalai Lama's return due to fears of his residual influence in the Himalayan region. 

China's confidence that materialism would erode Tibetans' loyalty to the Dalai Lama was dented last year when many Tibetans heeded his call not to wear endangered animal furs and burned skins worth thousands of yuan each and among their most precious belongings.

In another sign of the Dalai Lama's influence, almost 10,000 Tibetans converged on Kumbum Monastery -- known in Chinese as Taersi -- in China's northwestern province of Qinghai last year, mistakenly thinking the Dalai Lama would be there.

"It was a big blow to the Communist Party," said Wang Lixiong, author of three books on Tibet, including "Unlocking Tibet" and "Sky Burial: The Fate of Tibet".

Lodi Gyari, the Dalai Lama's top envoy, has warned of potential instability unless the Tibet issue is resolved within the lifetime of the spiritual leader, who turns 72 this month.

His death in exile could radicalize exiled Tibetan youth who have clamored for independence and are frustrated with the Dalai Lama's "middle way" approach that advocates autonomy within China, analysts said.

It could create a rallying point at home for Tibetans unhappy with Communist rule and leave a destabilizing leadership vacuum.

Wang, the author, said the Dalai Lama was the key to resolving the Tibet issue but predicted that China would drag its feet on an early resolution to avoid introducing elections in Tibet. The government-in-exile has embraced democracy.

"It's all for show," Wang said of the envoys' visits. "China is delaying because it has no desire to resolve the Tibet issue which would mean holding elections instead of Beijing appointing Tibetan officials."