Kosova: Is Partition Most Likely Outcome?
As it will be difficult to reach an agreement about a possible unified and independent Kosova, will both Albanians and Serbs have to settle for the less desirable option of partition?
Below is an article written by Patrick Moore and published on the Radio Free
April 24, 2007 (RFE/RL) -- Many commentators have suggested that the Serbian-dominated north of Kosovo will break off from that province and become a part of
The idea of partitioning Kosovo along ethnic lines is nothing new. Some Serbian officials and academics toyed with the idea in the early decades of the 20th century as a way of dealing with the Serbs' declining demographic position there. More recent partition projects were associated with the
In addition to securing Serbian-majority areas and cultural and religious sites for the Serbian state, the partition planners have generally sought to keep control of as much of the province's mineral wealth for
Some forms of de facto partition already exist in Kosovo. In the 1970s and early 1980s, when ethnic Albanian politicians held sway in communist Kosovo after decades of tough Serbian rule, many Serbs left the province. They said they were victims of intimidation and various forms of pressure to sell their land, although the Albanians claimed the Serbs were happy to take the money and move to better farms in Vojvodina.
Serbian Refugees
In the wake of the 1998-99 conflict, much of the Kosovar Serbian population fled their homes for
Some Serbian refugees and displaced persons probably will never go back to their former homes in what are now heavily Albanian areas like Pristina. The Serbian ethnic-cleansing campaign of 1999 in particular made heavy use of "human intelligence" on the ground that only local Serbs could supply. Many Serbs who cooperated with former Serbian and Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic's security forces subsequently fled because they feared the wrath of their Albanian neighbors.
Those Albanians also remember that it was the Serbs of Kosovo who formed the bedrock of support for Milosevic in his rise to power in the mid-1980s and subsequently helped keep him there.
Lack Of Communication
There has, moreover, been little communication across ethnic lines since 1999. The younger generations of Serbs and Albanians literally do not speak each other's languages because they never experienced the joint school or military systems that Yugoslav-era generations did.
Traditionally, few Serbs bothered to learn much Albanian, but prior to the late 1980s, most Kosovar Albanians with anything more than very basic schooling knew some Serbo-Croatian. All Kosovar males who served in the Yugoslav military learned at least enough Serbo-Croatian to conduct basic conversations and probably developed their skills further if they were posted to
Balkan Dominoes
The international community has long ruled out partition as an option, saying that Kosovo's future will be determined for the province as a whole. Some observers have warned that if foreign powers ever do allow the Serbian north to secede, they will pave the way for similar partition attempts in the Presevo Valley, Macedonia, or Bosnia-Herzegovina, thereby opening a Pandora's box of Balkan conflicts.
Whatever the merits of a Balkan domino theory might be, there is at least one realistic scenario for Kosovo that leaves open the possibility of partition in the not-too-distant future. According to that view,
In the meantime, according to this scenario, the Kosovar Albanians will become increasingly impatient. Before young hotheads or organized radicals take matters into their own hands and renew the violence that shook the province in March 2004, the political leaders will issue a unilateral declaration of independence. This will be endorsed as the only practical alternative to protracted instability by several members of the international community, including probably the
Most of the EU member states will bicker among themselves and not be able to act together, as has often happened in the past.
Facts On The Ground
At this point, so the theory goes,
But that will not make any difference at this stage. According to this scenario,
The partition will then be sealed, perhaps with the assistance of foreign peacekeepers guarding the new boundary lines to prevent any direct clashes between Serbian and Kosovar Albanian forces.
The new Kosovar state will try to observe the provisions of the Ahtisaari plan and protect the Serbian enclaves and cultural properties because it knows that its international standing depends on it. But the enclaves will likely fade away as the young in particular move to the north, to
One of the lessons of the Croatian and Bosnian conflicts of the early 1990s was that Serbian populations outside
Partition would be a bitter pill for the Albanians to swallow. They have said repeatedly that they will not accept it, but they might find themselves with little choice. With the political limbo of the UNMIK period behind them and a new legal system in place, they will then get on with their own lives and display the skills of entrepreneurship that they have in the