Abkhazia: Mafia Blamed for Abkhaz Assassination Attempt
Interpreting Russia’s reaction
Tbilisi is interpreting the Russian statement as a sign that the Kremlin is
not interested in conducting serious peace talks. In a 1 March statement, the
Georgian Foreign Ministry expressed “bewilderment” at Moscow’s
declaration, adding that the announcement appeared intended to derail a peace
deal. “A cause of concern is the fact that the Russian side, with this
artificially produced situation, puts in doubt the resumption of negotiations,”
the Georgian statement said. Abkhaz de facto president Sergei Bagapsh has expressed
his willingness to hold negotiations with Georgia, provided that Tbilisi agrees
to “the non-use of force” as the basis for the talks. In recent
weeks, Georgia and Russia have been engaged in a battle of words over which
side has the stronger commitment to a peaceful resolution of the 12-year territorial
dispute. “The Russian statement is really funny,” said political
analyst Paata Zakareishvili. “Abkhazia is basically part of Russia and
their business interests run strong there. [T]he government structures have
their own economic interests in Abkhazia, and with Ankvab’s arrival, there’s
going to be a clash of those interests.”
Organized crime connection?
The 52-year-old Ankvab came under heavy automatic gunfire late on 28 February
while traveling from the Abkhazian capital Sokhumi to his residence in the nearby
town of Gudauta. He was not harmed during the attack. Following his appointment
as prime minister on 14 February, Ankvab launched a campaign to stamp out the
organized crime groups that control much of the separatist region’s economy.
A former Moscow businessman, Ankvab served as deputy interior minister for the
Soviet Republic of Georgia, and as interior minister for Abkhazia after the
Black Sea region broke away from Tbilisi in the early 1990s. Authorities blocked
the minister’s registration application for the region’s October
2004 presidential elections, thereby prompting Ankvab to throw his support behind
Bagapsh’s candidacy. Bagapsh said criminal elements eager to disrupt Ankvab’s
anti-corruption campaign were behind the assassination attempt. Speaking at
a 1 March news conference, Ankvab said the attack would not cause him to change
policy. “Some people in Abkhazia cannot stomach our reforms. They don't
want to live according to the law and don't want the law to operate in Abkhazia,”
the state-run Russian news agency RIA-Novosti reported Ankvab as saying.
Or a Russian connection?
Abkhazia recently banned the export of wood and raised prices for scrap metal
- two changes that could run up against smugglers’ interests, observers
say. Abkhaz Interior Minister Otar Khetsia, a Bagapsh appointee, also recently
announced plans to fire half of his personal staff in an effort to eliminate
those with ties to organized crime. The Georgian government appears to support
Ankvab’s explanation for the attack, though many officials in Tbilisi
believe that groups linked to former Abkhaz president Vladislav Ardzinba - an
Ankvab opponent who left office in January 2005 - carried out the assassination
attempt. Georgian analysts, meanwhile, believe that there may be a Russian connection.
“What is happening there is a fight between different interest groups
within the Russian Federation and it was just projected onto Ankvab,”
said Temuri Yakobashvili, executive vice-president of the Georgian Foundation
for Strategic and International Studies.
Tensions simmering in Sokhumi
Tensions have simmered in Sokhumi since Moscow failed to block the election
of Bagapsh as president in October 2004 in favor of its preferred candidate,
then-prime minister Raul Khajimba, Georgian observers believe. The election
controversy brought Abkhazia to the brink of civil war, until a power-sharing
deal was forged between Bagapsh and Khajimba, now the breakaway territory’s
vice-president. “The differences between these groups would have come
up [eventually],” said Yakobashvili. “The signs of unhappiness were
already in place before this happened.” Zakareishvili suggested more clashes
could be in the offing. “Ankvab is no democrat. I’d expect him to
respond quite strongly and fight these forces.” Representatives of Bagapsh’s
administration have so far steered clear of suggesting any Russian association
with the attack. Neither have they sought to implicate Georgia’s leadership.
A 3 March working visit to Moscow by Bagapsh and Vice President Raul Khajimba
has been postponed, but, according to the Abkhaz leader, only because of celebrations
related to International Women’s Day on 8 March. Analysts in Tbilisi say
the attack augurs poorly for Abkhazia’s political stability. Bagapsh,
however, has sought to dispel any impression that his administration lacks unity.
"There are no differences within the leadership of Abkhazia,” Bagapsh
said in a 2 March interview with Interfax. “We are working together well
and I totally rule out political factors behind the attempt on the life of the
republic's prime minister.”
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Source: ISN