Although the protests in Iraq have not been on many newspaper front pages, the country has been confronted by the recent popular uprisings sweeping through the Middle East and North Africa. Many cities in Iraq, including Baghdad, saw large scale demonstrations. During this protests at least two dozen protesters were killed by security forces. Although the protest have so far not reached the scale of those in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Libya or Syria, they can nevertheless have far reaching consequences.

UNPO believes that a stable and prospering Iraq is of vital importance for the country, its many ethnic groups and the region. For that reason UNPO, in collaboration with the Assyrian Council of Europe, organised a fact finding mission to Iraq from 27 March until 3 April to investigated the current state of security, economic development, and emigration in northern Iraq. With the popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa continuing, UNPO considered it timely and necessary to follow this visit up by organising a roundtable in order to contribute to the international debate on the future of Iraq.

The well visited roundtable was split into three rounds of discussion, each focussing on an important issue for Iraq:

- Discussion I: “Iraq’s protests: a product of good governance?”

- Discussion II: “What are the consequences of the popular uprisings in the region for Iraq?

- Discussion III: Can the wider region learn from Iraq’s experience with democracy?

The first round of discussion started with a debate on the reasons behind the recent protests in Iraq. Dr. Roel Meijer, Senior Researcher at the Clingendael Institute, began with pointing out that all protest in the Middle East and North Africa have their roots in economic problems. Adding to that, Dr. Islam Qasem, Strategy Analyst at The Hague Center for Strategic Studies, argued that stability, development and growth are not possible without having stable and functioning political systems. Most participants agreed that this kind of ‘good governance’ is missing in Iraq. Various reasons for this were given, like a lack of experience with democracy, but the sectarian tensions in Iraq were definitely mentioned most often as the main reason for Iraq’s political and social tensions.

A debate ensued about the question of whether these sectarian tensions are comparable to those seen in other countries in the region, prompting a clear division of opinions. A narrow majority of attendants argued that the situation in Iraq is exceptional, with the sectarian tensions being far more pronounced because of the 2003 war. They indicated that during the protests in Iraq they did not see a ‘nation’ protesting like in Egypt, but rather different sectarian groups with diverging interests. According to this group of participants a lack of mutual trust permeates Iraq’s communities. This hampers the working of the country’s democratic system, but also makes combined protests for change unfeasible. Others saw little difference with the ethno-sectarian tensions in neighbouring countries. Proponents of this view saw the same ethnic tensions in Syria and Libya for example, and argued that if it proved to be possible there to mobilize large parts of the population to protest for regime change, Iraq could face the same fate if it would not quickly improve its democratic and economic record. Mr. Marcel van der Heijden, Programme Officer at Hivos, took the middle ground by pointing out that the atmosphere in Iraq as a whole is different than that it other countries in the Middle East and North Africa because of its exceptionally large sectarian divisions, but that this does not hold true for all regions.

The second roundtable discussion focused on the question of how the developments in the region influence Iraq. Discussed were topics including the significance for Iraq of increased ethno-sectarian tensions in the region, the importance of more democratic neighbours and how the changing regional balance of power will influence the country. Most participants saw a strengthened position for Iran in the region as an inevitable consequence of the recent changes in governments and indicated that they believed that this will have serious implications for Iraq. Dr. Sheth Jerjis from the Iraqi Turkmen Human Rights Research Foundation (SOITM) stated that he feared that this would exacerbate the sectarian tensions in Iraq. Others saw Iran’s strength as overestimated and believed that Iraq will not come under increased influence of Iran because of the country being firmly entrenched in the Arab world.

Following this a debate ensued about the waning influence of the West in Iraq. Several commentators feared a decrease in Western leverage, in particular because they were convinced that this would have a negative impact on the situation of minorities. Ms. Attiya Gamri, member of Provincial Parliament of Noord-Holland for the PvdA and Member of the Assyria Council of Europe, indicated her particular concern about the position of Christians in Iraq, who are, as she pointed out, already threatened in their survival. Dr. Jerjis agreed and indicated that the Turkmen in Iraq face similar problems.

The concluding third round of discussions started with debate on the question of what the region could learn from Iraq. Most speakers did not see many positive things to learn from Iraq’s experience with democracy and saw the country more like a negative example of what not to do. An important negative example cited as affecting Iraq’s democracy was the American installed ‘communitarianism’ which, based on a sectarian basis, has fragmented Iraqi society. Regarding the current uprising in the Middle East and North Africa, almost no one saw a connection between the current regime changes and the fall of Saddam Hussein 2003. The contributors agreed that the turn of events differs completely, given that Saddam Hussein’s fall came from above and not from the people as in Egypt or Tunisia. The discussants did see a possible meaningful connection between the foreign intervention in Iraq and that in Libya now, but agreed that more research had to be conducted on this topic before reaching any meaningful conclusions.

The final discussion of the roundtable dealt with the question of what the international community can do for Iraq. This discussion undoubtedly got most attention from attendants with an Iraqi background. The majority of them shared the opinion that continued international political and media attention for Iraq remains of the utmost importance to keep pressure on the politicians in Iraq in order to improve the situation in their country in the field of democracy, the rule of law and the economy.

The roundtable was concluded with a short summary and thanks to the participants, for their contributions to a successful and stimulating roundtable. UNPO looks forward to build on the roundtable with an informal series of events raising awareness of the situations facing minorities living within states in some of the most troubled parts of the world today.

Participant List:

Dr. Roel Meijer, Senior Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute; Dr. Islam Qasem, Strategy Analyst at the Hague Center for Strategic Studies; Dr. Mehmet Koca, Tuz Hurmatu (northern Iraq) Community member; Ms. Eva Kalkhoven, Policy Officer Human Rights in Iran and Iraq at Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Mr. Harry Hummel, Senior Advisor at Bridging the Gulf and executive director at the NHC; Ms. Attiya Gamri, member of the Provincial Parliament of Noord-Holland (PvdA) and board member of the Assyria Council of Europe; Mr. Koen van Lieshout, Coordinator MENA region for Amnesty; Mr. Joas Wagemakers, Researcher at the Clingendael Institute; Dr. Sheth Jerjis, Chairman of the Iraqi Turkmen Human Rights Research Foundation (SOITM); Mr. Marcel van der Heijden, Programme Officer at HIVOS; Ms. Bojana Kos Grabar, Founder Art:Reset Den Haag; Mr. Osama El Neshhedi, Refugee from Iraq; Ms. Emma Oosten, Project Manager Netherlands for the Helsinki Committee, Ms. Johanneke van den Bos, Project Assistant at Bridging the Gulf, Mr. Joas Wagemakers, Researcher at the Clingendael Institute; Mr. Araz Abbas Member of the Board Iraakse Platform Nederland; Ms. May Alpatty, Member of the Board Iraakse Platform Nederland; Ms. Robin van Wechem, Student Erasmus Journalisten; Mr. Andrew Swan, Programme Manager at UNPO.

A more elaborate roundtable report and a more general report on the situation in Iraq, will be available on www.unpo.org soon.

Click here for more information on the position of the Assyrians, the Iraqi Kurds and the Iraqi Turkmen.